Eight Candidates, One Veto-Prone Contest: Why the Race to Lead the United Nations Matters

The campaign to choose the next secretary-general of the United Nations has entered a decisive phase, with eight candidates competing to lead an organization facing wars, financial pressure, geopolitical division and growing public doubt about whether it can still deliver meaningful results.

António Guterres of Portugal will leave office on December 31 after two five-year terms. His successor, who will become the UN’s tenth secretary-general on January 1, 2027, will inherit responsibility for an institution expected to prevent conflict, coordinate humanitarian relief, defend human rights and mobilize international cooperation on development, climate change and public health.

The contest now includes former presidents, senior diplomats and current or former UN officials from Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. It is also taking place amid two competing expectations: an informal regional tradition suggesting that Latin America and the Caribbean may be due to provide the next secretary-general, and sustained pressure for the UN to appoint a woman for the first time in its 80-year history.

The eight candidates are Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica; Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana; Rafael Mariano Grossi of Argentina; Michelle Bachelet of Chile; María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador; Macky Sall of Senegal; Olara Otunnu of Uganda; and Ivonne A-Baki, an Ecuadorian-Lebanese diplomat nominated by Tonga.

According to Reuters, an initial confidential Security Council straw poll placed Grynspan narrowly ahead, followed by Rodrigues-Birkett and Grossi. Those results are not binding, however, and the race can change substantially as council members reconsider candidates and the five permanent members begin revealing where they may exercise their vetoes. A second informal poll is expected on August 21.

How the selection works

Despite frequent references to a UN “election,” ordinary citizens do not vote, and neither do the 193 members of the General Assembly at the decisive initial stage.

Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the 15-member Security Council recommends one candidate to the General Assembly, which then makes the formal appointment.

The council’s ten elected members can encourage or discourage a candidate, but its five permanent members, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, possess veto power. A candidate who receives wide support but is opposed by any one of those five governments may be blocked.

Council members conduct a series of confidential straw polls, traditionally indicating whether they “encourage,” “discourage,” or express “no opinion” about each candidate. Later rounds may distinguish the ballots of permanent and elected members, allowing campaigns to determine whether opposition amounts to a potential veto.

Once the Security Council agrees on a candidate, it passes a resolution recommending that person to the General Assembly. The Assembly has historically approved the Council’s choice, usually by acclamation. In practice, therefore, the most important negotiations occur among governments behind closed doors rather than through a public global vote.

The current process is more transparent than earlier selection processes. Candidates must be nominated by at least one member state and submit a résumé, vision statement, and campaign-financing disclosures. They also participate in public, webcast dialogues where governments and civil society organizations question them about peace, development, human rights, management, and political independence.

Yet the final decision remains concentrated in the Security Council. That tension, between public hearings and private power, is one of the central contradictions of the contest.

What the candidates are proposing

Rebeca Grynspan: reform built around delivery

Grynspan, a former vice-president of Costa Rica and the current secretary-general of UN Trade and Development, has presented herself as an experienced institutional reformer with a strong background in economics and development.

Her vision calls for an “infrastructure for peace,” a UN capable of addressing the political, economic and social conditions that allow conflicts to develop. She wants the organization to become the international community’s “partner of choice” by being more agile, accountable and useful to member states.

Grynspan also proposes streamlining UN structures, aligning overlapping mandates and connecting budgets more closely to measurable results. Her development credentials are especially relevant as lower-income countries struggle with debt, restricted access to affordable financing and widening inequality.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett: leadership from a small state

Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s permanent representative to the UN and a former foreign minister, is campaigning under the theme “Reasserting, Reforming, and Rallying Our United Nations.”

Her candidacy brings the perspective of a Caribbean small state particularly exposed to climate change, unequal financing arrangements and the economic decisions of larger powers. Her vision emphasizes the UN’s three central pillars, peace and security, sustainable development and human rights, combined with people-centred institutional reform.

She has also stressed the difficulty developing countries face when seeking climate financing, including support for adaptation and compensation for losses caused by extreme weather.

Rafael Grossi: crisis management and pragmatic diplomacy

Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has built his candidacy around his experience managing politically sensitive nuclear crises, including negotiations concerning Iran and the protection of nuclear facilities affected by war in Ukraine.

His vision is organized around five areas: effective action for peace and security; realistic development partnerships; human rights and human dignity; institutional renewal; and what he describes as principled but pragmatic multilateralism.

Grossi argues that the secretary-general must be willing to engage governments directly, including adversaries, while retaining political independence. His campaign presents the IAEA as evidence that an international institution can operate visibly and assertively even when major powers are deeply divided.

 Michelle Bachelet: rights, political experience and public legitimacy

Bachelet is a former president of Chile, former executive director of UN Women and former UN high commissioner for human rights. She is one of the most internationally recognized candidates in the field.

Her vision identifies four strategic directions: reforming the institution with a clear purpose; reconnecting the UN with the public; reaffirming its founding principles; and preparing the organization for future challenges through collective leadership.

Bachelet has promised to defend international law and pursue an organization that is more agile, efficient, and accountable. Her record gives her experience in both national government and the UN human-rights system, but it may also expose her to political opposition from governments that objected to scrutiny during her tenure as human-rights chief.

Although Chile’s current government withdrew its support, Brazil and Mexico have maintained their nominations, keeping her formally in the contest.

María Fernanda Espinosa: prevention before crisis

Espinosa is a former president of the UN General Assembly and former foreign and defence minister of Ecuador. Nominated by Antigua and Barbuda, she describes the secretary-general as an “honest broker” who must listen equally to the priorities of the global North and South.

Her programme includes stronger conflict prevention, renewed development cooperation, management of the energy and digital transitions, better implementation of UN decisions and financing tied more clearly to results.

Espinosa has proposed crisis-prevention hubs or a “peace room” capable of bringing political, humanitarian, development and data analysis together before a dispute becomes a war. She also emphasizes broader resource mobilization, including strengthening the capacity of developing countries to raise domestic revenue without losing access to international support.

Macky Sall: development and a stronger African voice

Sall, president of Senegal from 2012 to 2024, was nominated by Burundi and has since received the support of Senegal’s current government.

His programme rests on three broad pillars: treating peace, security, development and prosperity as connected issues; revitalizing multilateral cooperation; and improving UN governance.

Sall argues that peace cannot be sustained where poverty, inequality and climate vulnerability remain unaddressed. His candidacy gives Africa a former head of state with experience in the African Union and international development debates, particularly those concerning infrastructure and African debt.

However, his record in Senegal, including controversy surrounding an attempted postponement of the 2024 presidential election, is likely to be examined alongside his international experience. There has also been debate over whether his nomination by Burundi, which chaired the African Union in 2026, constituted a formal continental endorsement. It did not automatically make him the AU’s consensus candidate.

Olara Otunnu: moral authority and institutional reform

Otunnu, a former Ugandan foreign minister, UN ambassador and under-secretary-general for children and armed conflict, is the second African candidate.

His vision calls for the restoration of the UN’s moral authority, institutional reform, stronger conflict prevention, a redesigned international economic order, climate action linked to prosperity, improved development financing and international oversight of artificial intelligence.

During his August 19 dialogue at UN headquarters, Otunnu warned that the institution could not preserve public confidence without substantial change.

“Reform is no longer an optional choice. It is an imperative,” he told member states. “We cannot continue to do business as usual.”

When asked how he would reconnect ordinary people to an institution often regarded as remote, Otunnu said the secretary-general must work across global, national and community levels.

Delegates questioned him about debt, development financing, climate change, gender equality, the representation of developing countries in senior UN positions and the relationship between the General Assembly and Security Council.

Responding to questions from small states, Otunnu said reform should strengthen multilateralism and international law. Addressing the Sustainable Development Goals, he also said developing countries must fight corruption, plan effectively and mobilize domestic resources while the UN helps secure international financing. The complete public dialogue is available in the UN transcript.

 Ivonne A-Baki: shifting from process to results

A-Baki, a veteran diplomat who has served Ecuador as a government minister and ambassador to France, Qatar and the United States, became the eighth candidate after Tonga nominated her on August 17.

Her late entry could complicate the emerging calculations inside the Security Council. She is the second Ecuadorian candidate and the sixth woman in the current field.

A-Baki says the UN must move away from excessive attention to procedure and demonstrate tangible achievements.

“I stand ready to bring outside perspectives, fresh ideas, new talent,” she said when announcing her nomination, promising to shift the institution towards “real, measurable results.”

Her vision emphasizes war prevention, institutional efficiency, biodiversity, Indigenous participation and cross-regional diplomacy. Her campaign will now need to move quickly to organize a formal dialogue with member states and demonstrate support inside the Security Council.

A consequential but constrained office

The secretary-general is often described as the world’s leading diplomat, but the office combines considerable influence with severe limitations. The secretary-general can mediate conflicts, warn the international community, appoint special envoys, manage the UN Secretariat and use the authority of the office to draw attention to neglected crises. However, the office cannot compel governments to obey international law, prevent a permanent Security Council member from exercising its veto or independently finance programmes that member states refuse to support.

The strongest candidate, therefore, may not be the one with the longest list of promises. It may be the person capable of defending the UN Charter, managing an institution under financial pressure, confronting powerful governments when necessary and maintaining enough diplomatic access to negotiate with them.

For the world, the central question is whether the next secretary-general can help restore confidence in international cooperation at a time when wars are multiplying, humanitarian needs are rising, climate threats are intensifying and trust between nations is weakening.

The candidates will continue to present their visions publicly, but the decisive negotiations will take place largely behind closed doors among the 15 members of the Security Council, and especially the five permanent members with veto power.

The decision they make will extend far beyond UN headquarters in New York. It will influence how the international community responds to conflict, displacement, hunger, debt, climate change, technological disruption, and attacks on human rights. Ultimately, this race is not simply about who will lead the United Nations. It is about what kind of United Nations the world will have when cooperation is becoming more difficult, and more necessary.