Rodrigues-Birkett Moves Ahead as Otunnu Gains Ground in Second UN Leadership Poll

Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has moved into first place in the contest to become the next United Nations secretary-general, while Uganda’s Olara Otunnu made the strongest advance in the second informal poll conducted by the UN Security Council.

The confidential, non-binding straw poll was held behind closed doors on Friday, August 21, as the 15-member council continued its effort to identify a candidate capable of commanding broad support and avoiding opposition from any of its five permanent members.

Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s permanent representative to the United Nations and a former foreign minister, received eight “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and four “no opinion” ballots. She narrowly overtook Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, who led the first poll on July 30 but fell from 10 encourage votes to seven. Grynspan received four discourage and four no-opinion votes in the latest round.

Argentina’s Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also received seven encourage votes. However, he faced six discourage votes and two no-opinion ballots, placing him in a more difficult position than Grynspan despite their equal levels of stated support.

Otunnu posts the clearest improvement

For Uganda, the most significant development was Otunnu’s rise from two encourage votes in the first poll to five in the second. The former UN under-secretary-general received five encourage, five discourage and five no-opinion votes, compared with two encourage, five discourage and eight no-opinion ballots on July 30.

The movement suggests that three council members who were previously undecided, or unwilling to express a preference, shifted towards supporting his candidacy. His discourage total, however, remained unchanged at five, showing that his campaign has gained interest without reducing the level of opposition.

Otunnu’s improvement followed his August 19 interactive dialogue with UN member states and civil-society organizations, where he presented his proposals for institutional reform, peace and security, development financing, climate action, artificial-intelligence governance and the restoration of the UN’s moral authority.

The complete second-round results

The reported results were:

Candidate	Country	Encourage	Discourage	No opinion
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett	Guyana	8	3	4
Rebeca Grynspan	Costa Rica	7	4	4
Rafael Mariano Grossi	Argentina	7	6	2
Macky Sall	Senegal	6	7	2
Olara Otunnu	Uganda	5	5	5
María Fernanda Espinosa	Ecuador	4	3	8
Michelle Bachelet	Chile	2	6	7
Ivonne A-Baki	Ecuador	0	8	7

Former Senegalese president Macky Sall maintained six encourage votes but again faced seven discourage ballots, leaving his candidacy with considerable opposition.

María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador received four encourage, three discourage and eight no-opinion votes. Her relatively low discourage figure may give her campaign an argument for remaining in the race, although the eight no-opinion ballots show that she has yet to convert neutrality into active support.

Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet experienced the steepest decline in encourage votes. Her support fell from six in the first poll to two, while six council members discouraged her candidacy and seven expressed no opinion.

Ivonne A-Baki, the Ecuadorian-Lebanese diplomat nominated by Tonga shortly before the poll, received no encourage votes in her first appearance on the ballot. Eight members discouraged her candidacy and seven expressed no opinion. Her late entry left little time for diplomatic outreach before the council voted. The result nevertheless presents a serious challenge to her campaign.

What the poll can — and cannot — tell the world

Straw polls are designed to measure the direction of support rather than select the winner immediately.

For each candidate, council members mark “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion.” The process allows governments to test possible candidates, reconsider their positions and determine whether a viable consensus is beginning to emerge.

A no-opinion vote is not necessarily an abstention in the traditional sense. It may indicate genuine uncertainty, strategic silence or a government withholding its position until negotiations progress.

Similarly, an encourage vote does not guarantee support in the formal decision, while a discourage vote does not always represent permanent opposition.

The most important limitation of the latest results is that the ballots did not identify the votes of the five permanent council members. Until color-coded ballots are introduced, the candidates cannot know whether their opposition includes a likely veto from Washington, Beijing, Moscow, London or Paris.

This means a candidate could receive the highest total number of encourage votes and still be unable to proceed. Conversely, a candidate with fewer encourage votes but no permanent-member opposition could emerge later as the acceptable compromise.

“No candidate has commanded a significant majority” after the first two rounds, Daniel Forti of the International Crisis Group told PassBlue, suggesting that the open field could attract additional contenders.

Regional and gender expectations remain influential

The results continue to favour candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean, the region widely considered next in the UN’s informal system of geographic rotation. Three of the four highest-ranked candidates are from that region: Rodrigues-Birkett, Grynspan and Grossi. Four of the eight candidates are women, and the two candidates currently holding the strongest overall positions are both women.

The United Nations has never appointed a woman as secretary-general. That fact has generated widespread pressure on the council to address the gender imbalance at the top of an institution that has promoted equality throughout its history.

Regional rotation and gender representation, however, are political expectations rather than binding legal requirements. The Security Council can recommend any eligible candidate it considers acceptable.

The presence of two African candidates — Sall and Otunnu — also complicates efforts to consolidate continental support. Sall remains ahead on encourage votes, but Otunnu is the only candidate in the field whose support increased substantially between the two rounds.

What happens next

Security Council members mark each candidate as “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion.” The ballots measure support but do not constitute a formal vote.

The decisive stage will come when the council introduces color-coded ballots identifying the positions of its five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Any one of them can block a candidate.

The winning candidate will need at least nine council votes and no permanent-member veto. The Security Council will then recommend one name to the 193-member General Assembly for formal appointment.

Further straw polls are expected in the coming weeks.

The latest results show that Rodrigues-Birkett, Grynspan and Grossi remain in the leading group, while Otunnu has gained momentum. But with no candidate yet commanding nine encourage votes—and the veto positions still unknown—the contest to succeed António Guterres remains open.